Tuesday, December 18, 2007

St George Real Estate - National vs. Local Market Conditions and Projections 2008

National Scene 2008
The National real estate scene has seen characteristic turns in the market that correspond with interest rates, such that predictions into 2008 on existing-home sales is projected to trend gradually and only modestly upwards according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). They point to a recent mortgage disruption that peaked in August leaving the fall-out of lower home sales in September and October 2006. Since mortgage rates have improved the existing-home sales are expected to improve slightly to stable over the next couple of months. Because home sales have been significantly less in 2007, however, as compared with 2006, a Pending Home Sales forward-looking indicator index, helps project that the broad trend over the coming year of 2008, while a gradual rise in existing-home sales, will only be modestly higher than 2007, according to Yun, chief economist with the NAR. A recovery of new home sales is unlikely before 2009.

St George Utah Real Estate
As far as St George Utah goes- one local guru has gone on the record to say that he thinks things will pick up early spring.

Here on the local scene, home sales in periphery locations, even Hurricane, have suffered the most. Normally we would get our spill over of buyers into the more rural locations, perhaps from Californians looking to get back to a more rural simple existence and out of suburbia. In my limited view, we are closely tied to the national scene, such that when the coast lines free up, then we also tend to get back to a normal market. I think the highly affected rural areas are symptomatically the first responders and indicators of the future. One system affects another and right now Sellers in the more rural areas are mostly hanging onto their equity, rather than giving it away. Who might could blame them? In other words, if they were responding with significant price reductions, than we could forsee it in our future more centrally located in the Greater St George area.

It appears to me that while transactions are down there is and has been, for some time, a pretty good resistance by home owners to NOT lower prices, such that speculation buyers have had to halt activities for longer than they have wanted to in desperate hopes that prices would drop even more. I suspect that some of that will go on into the new year with some wondering if the winter will put the "freeze" enough on the sellers to come down even more. St George is still an attractive place and other non-speculative buyers are and will be buying and creating enough activity, to keep sellers sustained in their activities to try to maintain value... in my opinion.

In other words, if you as a buyer are waiting, I do not think it will be for an opportunity corrsponding with the market at large that you will avail yourself of, so much more than in waiting for that right opportunity that one can 'normally' find. However, this view is being challenged still, by all the Bank REO sales and short sales that seem to be receiving some numbers and flow, in terms of a large number of porportionate properties that are "moving" at this time.

This is your eye on the St George Real Estate market coming to you from the desk of Brian Habel, your St George Utah realtor. Be sure to visit my website and use my advanced property search provided through the Home Buyers Scouting Report- you will be glad you did. My many users, over 60 buyers, are currently enjoying the aerial photography of listings (I hope you've learned about the "Birds Eye View" from clicking on Map Views) and a way to save and track your favorite properties with email updates and being notified of any changes, such as a price change, addition of a photo or if the status changes to Under Contract, etc.

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