Friday, June 11, 2010

Real Estate Market Conditions and Predictions by Economists

The Real Estate Market Conditions and Predictions by Economists I'm about to share, includes gleaning from an article written by Utah Association of Realtors (UAR) Communications Director, Deanna Devey.  This article is highly informative because it draws on a myriad of economic analysts to include a survey of 92 economists by MacroMarkets LLC that "says U.S. home prices will begin a gradual recovery by next year".  While the economists predictions varied widely, the average prediction was prices will rise 12% over five years.

Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's predicts, that while home prices are near bottom with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index having shown home prices increasing in recent months, that he still anticipates a 5% dip again in prices on the national average due to more foreclosures to come onto the market.  Zandi says that the country is two-thirds the way through our supply of foreclosures.

Andres Carbacho-Burgos of Moody's tells the Salt Lake Tribune that median home prices in Utah won't stabilize until the end of this year of the first couple months of 2011.

Yung, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors which garners the most widely distributed data on home sales, gives a lot of credit to the home buyer tax credit diminishing the supply of homes on the market by about 2.5 months and a positive home price impact of 5 to 8 percent, and overall preservation of $1 trillion in housing wealth.  He believes more optimistically, that this has helped stabilize and limit future foreclosures.  David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, says that low interest rates are helping to carry forward the momentum, also the pent up household formations, budding employment growth and stabilizing prices.

A Utah Work Forces press release reports that the United States has turned an economic corner and is now beginning once again to add jobs on the net.  The groundswell of economic rebound with more jobs on the net is finding roots in Utah.  Economists suggest that there is a direct relationship between the job market improving and housing formulations and demand.

Economist warn against the countries high debt-to-GDP needing to be tamed in order to spell us off from becoming another situation similar to Greece.  Devey, UAR Communications Director, ends with, that while the Federal Reserve is "expected to keep interest rates at near rock-bottom levels at least through the end of the year", with Crowe saying they will barely break 6 percent by December 2010, that Zandi predicts measurably higher interest rates in 2011 and 2012.

Utah Real Estate has seen the number of sales increase by 20 percent in  the first quarter of 2010 over the first quarter of 2009 home sales (includes condominiums).  A Utah ecomomists January prediction had Utah home sales increasing at a rate of 10 percent in the year of 2010.

This article is brought to courtesy of: St George Utah Real Estate or with
Brian Habel
Fidelity Real Estate, PC
1244 Silk Tree Circle
St George, Utah  84790