Monday, May 09, 2011

St George Real Estate- Recap, Pick-Up, Long Term Forecast & New Economic Boost

St George real estate has seen a lot of ups and downs in its economy in the last 6 years. 

St George Real Estate Recap
In the St George real estate sector, having been one of the last places to capitalize on investments, investors helped push up real estate values at an unprecedented rate.  So fast did St George property values rise, that we either led the nation or ranked third or fourth for a year or two consecutively.  Many locals saw their home values virtually double witin a couple of years.  Well, like the rest, we felt the bubble burst.  Not only does "what goes up, must come down", but how fast we went up has had a relationship with how fast we have came down too.  We spiked up and spiked down.  Our bell curve was steeper.  As such, one could also speculate a little more educatedly, that perhaps we have reached the bottom.

Many believe St George real estate values spiked higher than most places.  Well, I saw a St George commercial real estate presenters assessment of our residential values with graphs and so forth and he showed that actually we did not spike any higher than say California.  They just had a much more gradual increase over time. So, I don't know if anybody has been to the Lagoon amusement park here in Utah, but they have a roller coaster that emulates what happened to us.  A big tall ascent followed by a huge descent... and then two upside down loops to go with it.  All this unravel can lead us to think things are worse than they reall are here.

Tangible Pick-up in St George Real Estate Market - Second Quarter of 2011
St George Real Estate Market Stats
A tangible pick-up in the St George Real Estate market is noted by many St George Realtors to include myself starting in April 2011.  It is marked by LOTS more buyers looking at properties. However, almost as much seem to refuse to buy.  But that little difference, marks a pick up in transactions however.  Nationally, we are still taking a cold shower. What remains to be seen is how many new listings are coming onto the market to replace this pick up in activity that might just be normal for the time of the year.  Coming off months prior, the trend of listings sold to ones that are Active or being newly put onto the market was in favor of increasing inventory levels, while March did a small reversal to a little more solds than new ones coming on.  The first part of the second quarter of 2011 seems to mark a significant increase of activity.  Whether it translates to more solds than new listings being put on and a subsequent diminishing of inventory, has yet to be seen. 

St George Foreclosures
St George Foreclosures and Short Sales have typically been the measure for how a comparable base of solds and at what price, represent our current pricing of homes on the market.  The graph to the right will tell the number of Greater St George sales as to new listings being put on, for this last one year- for FORECLOSURES only. St George Foresclosures can be one indication of what is leading the market, perhaps helping keep prices flat lined or somewhat the same.  I'd say with our increase of activity that pricing is stagnet.  We will probaby stick around this bottom we are experiencing for some time yet.

Long-Term Forecast
St George Notice of Defaults
The Notice of Defaults are people who are defaulting on their loan payments and Washington County does have a measure of knowing.  Therefore, because there is the beginnings of a pattern showing these as declining, this could become predictive, months down the road, that of a slow transfer again towards more of a Sellers market.  If I could represent a number of defaults per year by comparing each years average amount with the musical notes going up on a music scale, say from "Do, Re, Mi, Fa", then Do=2007, Re=2008, then missing one up to Fa=2009, and then back down one for Mi=2010, and... so far 2011=Re with its trajectory in March heading us down even a bit lower.  This is a significant sign of diminishing distressed properties.  Eventually, this coud translate to regular sales becoming more the prevailing type of property forming the comparable sold comp base.  This lends itself away from distressed properites setting pricing on the market and being of a different type of listing inventory base. As such, one could logically speculate toward eventual price stabalization towards more of an average St George appreciation rate. Still it may take some time with the national market conditions influencing local St George real estate trends.

New St George Regional Airport Brings Economic Boost Ahead
It's official.  The new St George Utah Regional Airport is opened for flights and business as of January of this year- read more regarding the opening of our new St George Airport.

No comments: