Tuesday, October 11, 2011

St George Utah Real Estate - A good time? A unique enough place?

St George Utah real estate is a good bet always, but what about right now?  I can just imagine being a buyer right now.  I'd be wondering, where in the heck can somebody go on the line telling me if NOW is a good time to buy OR NOT.  Also, is St George Utah a good place to do that buying, uniquely so, now, or NOT?

I'll try to answer those questions as I tend to always play it safe for the buyer, actually putting myself in their shoes and not going out on the limb, even when it would benefit me of course... because as you know, I am a St George Utah Realtor® and benefit by saying now is a good time to buy as always folks, in the Greater St George Utah area... as is always a good bet.  Well, so lets get to it, now that is out of the way and you understand a bias, that I am influenced by one naturally, and that I'm NOT going to let it get in the way of (do my best), other than the subject being present, IF it is a good time or not, and Here, in the St George area, peculiarly, or not.  First, primarily BECAUSE we are so borderline on things where nobody knows, appreciate with me will you, how tough it is to go out on a limb with this AND therefore, the greater likelihood for me to be influenced by my bias.

#1-  I believe, but do not actually know, that it is a good time to buy if you are having to get a loan, precisely because, generally prices will probably be at their all time low right now and secondly, because interest rates, I think may never be lower and I predict more confidently, that they will go up and when they do, it will be TOO LATE.  I think massive inflation [hint: also in our interest rates] is in our futures because of where the value of our dollar is headed in going down.

#2-  I believe that now could possibly be the very best time to buy in St George, based on prices being generally at their all time low right now.  Some speculation says they could go lower.  I admit, I do not know and have seen them do just that (house prices drop).  HOWEVER, I believe (not know) that the economy has to take a more taxing down turn such that the separate variable of uniqueness of our area has to be out matched, in terms of demand in the real estate market, being outpaced by higher inventory levels here.  I do not believe that demand for the area can generally be outmatched by an oppressed economy at first.  Perhaps when and if the government ever gets drastic enough to go after pension, securities and social security.  I know that sounds drastic [and I'm really out there right now], but if it happened, our retirement base, that really holds up our area, would be depleted.  I do believe that where as we have largely snowbirds flocking here, in my opinion, it will be more than that in terms of the older adult populations flocking in here from all different parts of the country. 

Regarding inventory levels in the St George area, I have seen them shrinking and as such, I think it will keep prices where they are, or in certain segments they are actually already having increased.  For example, to get a condo/townhouse right now with pool and amenities is increasingly difficult.  A development called Hidden Valley Town Homes is a prime example of this.  There used to be several units available in there, it was completely saturated with available inventory.  Now, you cannot throw a stick at one before it is snatched up, they are all virtually gone.  Also, I think everyone would say prices have gone up at least 5 thousand if not 10 thousand in there.  I've bid on several on there so have first hand knowledge of what I'm speaking about.  There are some other market segments that have felt similar decrease in inventory levels as to St George market conditions and trends.

Now, word of caution involving foreclosures, there are supposed to be more coming.  However, stats show a decrease in foreclosures on the market, perhaps as short sales become increasingly more effective in being accomplished, they then do not slip on over into a foreclosure OR we just have less and less distressed homes on the market- some indication of movement in that direction (check the Notice of Defaults with any title company).  This has been the single biggest factor driving low prices as those prices have prevailed or assailed the comp base, therefore, how things get valued across the board to include regular resales.  When this dries up, so to do prices indicate a notch up in terms of what is fueling the comp base.

#3-  Not only is St George Utah Real Estate ripe for the picking in my estimation, but the way the economy is going, I'd say if you are a buyer [that is not leveraged too much right now or in being over-extended on investments], then NOW is a very good time to buy.  I defined buyer as somebody that has scrimped their money and saved OR that just does not want to make a mistake, then I'd possibly risk something if it were me.  But I would pursue it methodically and WITH a St George Realtor®, like myself.  I say this because of short sales and how tedious and involved on the surface of even knowing how available it really is, based off it just saying Active

I think the economy is in for a shock regarding how badly the government has overspent and our own lack of saving money.  Thus interest rates being so favorable now, I think, would be my own best bet on getting in now, while they are so very low.  But then if the economy goes south, the risk does increase involving real estate taking a further hit.  I do not know which will be the most impactful variant in which to pursue to be honest and I'm only guessing our initial course of how bad things will get in the economy and on what level. 

#4-  This leads me to answer the next question I posed in our beginning paragraph, regarding if St George Utah is peculiar and unique enough, for which to be pursuing investment now, for later.  I hedge upon thinking how even when times get tough, people have to have a good place to live and an increasing commodity that people will want is the community values and the way in which a community either rallies to help each other or does not.  I believe that intrinsically people know St George, Utah offers that buffer from the rest of the world in terms of the low crime and greater civility in the face of economic unrest. 

I believe that these very things, besides the fact of its beauty and charm and cultural richness, will keep St George Utah Real Estate, still, a very viable, unique (see St George Attractions & Resources) and likely candidate for further demand, even into a tougher future influencing purchasing power.

2 comments:

Audrey Monson said...

Great job outlining what we Realtors know based on our markets. Being a SLC Realtor, we are in there with you. Thanks for sharing.

Bryce Ross said...

Great information! I am also a realtor in Southern Utah and agree with your comments. However, my area of expertise involves the Cedar City real estate market.