Monday, March 10, 2014
Recently the Utah Association of Realtors did a podcast to Realtors such as myself talking about the 2014 Utah Housing Market Forecast. In this podcast they said that although current demand is outpacing supply and it is more of a sellers market right now, if we take the combination of supply and demand as well as Rising Interest Rates, this equates to relatively flat or stable sales for Utah. Also, they reported thus in the wake of stating that net in-migration is projected to be 4 times higher than in 2012, meaning a need for 3,000 newer housing units just to keep up. Also, job creation in Utah is greater than the national average. The economy doing better, allows for existing equity in homes to strengthen. All these factors will keep demand for homes favorable in 2014. The National Association of Realtors is forecasting a rise of 2 to 4% in home sales and 3 to 5% in growth of home prices.
However, since we're seeing stronger price growth, traditional home sellers will come to the market and that is going to mean more inventory and possibly even better inventory and that will slow price growth. It won't stop price growth, but it should tend to moderate price appreciation to keep it stable.
To continue, our podcast projects growth accordingly: Salt Lake prices should rise 7%, Provo 6%, Ogden 5%, Logan 5% and St George Utah's projected price growth was put at 3%.
On a personal note I've seen scarcity in the market place, hit certain segments, to equate to specific price appreciation that I project above the predicted 3%. This segment is the condo/townhouse segment say $150,00 and under. Many investors, retirees and first time home buyers would like to see much more product in this area than they currently do. The thing that makes condo/townhomes attractive to investors is that the yard maintenance is normally taken care of so that they do not have to hassle with ongoing upkeep or exterior maintenance.
Another segment that I've seen dwindle in available inventory is luxury lots, meant for luxury home builds. I've had opportunity lately to show many newer luxury homes. And while product is fair to midland, the new build lot situations in prime areas, seems to be on the 'topping out' list. In other words, those real nice niche developments, many of them have fewer and fewer lots available. To me, this might mean scarcity for the finer view lot situations or even in general, nicer lot opportunities in which to optimize a luxury new home build situation.
This has been your St George real estate update on housing trends for the area. Remember, that when you need an experienced Realtor who has his eye on the ball, I am available for you 24/7, just call (435) 632-0250 Brian's cell.