Friday, November 28, 2014

St George Real Estate Market Update October 2013 through October 2014

OK, what is the St George real estate market like?  Is it a good time to sell?  Is it a good time to buy?

I've tried to assess the answers to these questions based on the last year in review market analysis.  I pulled Statistics for the St George real estate market running from October of this year, 2014, through this time last year.

The supply of homes onto the market has increased lately going into the winter of 2014.  We can see in the graph below the number of new listings being listed, as well as the number being sold.

To take a closer look, lets compare the Greater St George supply of residential homes to a reservoir water line.  5-7 months supply of homes is a healthy level of homes.  It represents not that aggressive of a buyers market and also not that aggressive a sellers market either.

To determine the supply of homes on the market, lets pretend that if no new listings or water comes into the market or reservoir, then how long would it take to deplete the existing homes on the market or of the water in the reservoir, given the CURRENT rate of sales, or current rate of the water leaving the reservoir?  Well to answer that question, we can see it charted below for each month, what that would  be.  This is what we call the Absorption Rate- how long it would take the existing supply to be sold off the market.
As you can see above, the absorption rate is currently higher in October 2014, than at anytime in our year before.  Note that however it is in one to two months that we have jumped to this higher level.  So, until we see the next couple months determining a similar pattern we should not let it be saying anything too definite for now.

With the inventory of homes falling between 5 to 7 months, this is supposed to be a more normal environment conducive to both buyers and sellers.  We have been easily double that level of inventory post real estate bubble bursting in 2005-2006, to help put the latest little rise into perspective.

It is the interest rates moving perhaps higher, as the economy gets better or the unemployment rate decreasing that might lead to interest rates rising.  Just that alone, ought to encourage both buyer and seller to buy or sell now.  For the buyer it can equate to as much as $200 a month increase in payments.  For sellers, it means less buyers in the market place, thus less they can get for their homes.

So, our current absorption rate is still within normal parameters. You should not be alarmed whatsoever at this point, if you plan on selling.  In a prior blog write up we go back two years into more background history about how our local St George real estate market has evened out in its supply and demand fluctuation.  *Please be aware these graphs in this post pertain to residential listings in the Greater St George area and overall graphs including the Washington county would show different results.

But it does mean that you would need a good agent even more, to push past the increase of homes you are competing against.  Your agent better be able to expose your property well, to the most amount of sellers, which could really offset this trend.  Also, could it not make a difference to have an agent who is trained in negotiations?  Thus you can heighten your chances of getting a little more on the sale.  Then you have nothing to worry about.

One agent that fits that profile would be Brian Habel... OK, that's me.  With the number one naturally ranking website in the area for years now, we can expose your property to the most amount of people fathomable.  It is not what we say, but what we can and will do- expose, expose and THIS is verily what you need the most of when selling.  So whether you are looking to buy or sell, Brian is here for you.  Call anytime or visit our website for all available properties.

2 comments:

Aaron axel said...
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Aaron axel said...

very sweet blog about the real estate market update and property news that will be helpful for you in choosing right property at correct time.


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